Thursday, February 18, 2010

Good news for Manny Parra

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/daves-guys-the-pitchers/

Manny Parra, Milwaukee

There’s probably not a better example of the divide between the FIP crowd and the ERA crowd than Parra. Those who evaluate a pitcher by the amount of hits and runs he allows will see Parra as an inconsistent flake, a guy with good stuff but no idea how to use it. Those of us who don’t hold a pitcher’s entire BABIP against him will see a lefty who gets both groundballs and strikeouts and has been the victim of bad luck and/or bad defense in a career that still represents a small sample.

I lean more towards the latter camp, obviously. I don’t see a compelling reason to believe that he’s earned a .349 career BABIP. His line drive rates are average-ish, and his GB rate isn’t high enough that we should expect him to give up that many hits on balls in play. He doesn’t throw hittable crap down the middle. He may have been frustrating to watch over the last several years, but there’s a lot more ability here than the results would suggest.

Parra needs to breakout for the Brewers to win the division, or rather, the Brewers need some players to break out and Parra has one of the higher chances of actually breaking out. Parra has taunted Brewer fans with his potential, and now needs to realize it, and fast.

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